Thursday, February 7, 2008
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Projections: Brewers pitching
With all the starting jobs for the position players being finalized, the main concern for the Milwaukee Brewers is the starting pitching rotation. Who's going to start? Who's going to get traded? Will Parra get sent to the minors? Will Ben Sheets play for most of the year?
We've been hearing the questions for a couple months now, and I think it's time that we look at some projections for Brewers pitching. Using Marcel's system for 2008, here are the projected statistics for each of the candidates for a starting job:
Ben Sheets - 10-7 W-L, 3.93 ERA, 141 IP, 119 K
Yovani Gallardo - 8-5 W-L, 3.76 ERA, 110 IP, 96 K
Jeff Suppan - 11-9 W-L, 4.62 ERA, 206 IP, 107 K
Carlos Villanueva - 6-4 W-L, 3.97 ERA, 93 IP, 76 K
Chris Capuano - 8-10 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 155 IP, 126 K
Carlos Vargas - 10-8 W-L, 4.95 ERA, 154 IP, 106 K
Dave Bush - 10-10 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 172 IP, 126 K
Manny Parra - 2-2 W-L, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 37 K
I know these are very crude projections. They are mostly averages that take into account the league average and age, yet it gives us a nice starting point to make comparisons.
It's time for BrewersNation to make their cases for who should be in the starting rotation. You all have been quiet for a few days now, and its time to start the banter. What do you think?
Here's what I have -- Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, and Bush.
Here's why -- Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan are all locks. Villanueva has garnered high praise from Yost and Melvin, and he seems to have his foot in the door. It seemed like the Brewers were more comfortable with Villy in the starting rotation at the end of the year. Melvin has said that Carlos pitched very well at the beginning of the season in the bullpen and that the Crew may need his presence there again this year. I don't think that's going to happen, however.
Finally, the last spot is a tough choice. I would really like to see Parra in the final spot. It would first give us a lefty at the end of the rotation, so we are not so right-handed in our starting 5. But more importantly, I believe that Parra is the best pitcher out of the remaining candidates. With that said, however, Parra will probably be sent to Nashville to keep his arm out of trouble. He's been very injury prone, and the Brewers want to be careful with Manny while they can afford to do so.
Being reinforced by Melvin's words the other day, Bush is a strong candidate for the fifth spot. He has the most potential out of any other pitcher left, besides Parra. He does have the tendency to pitch brilliantly for 5 innings and blow up in the sixth, I admit it, but Bush has a fastball with a lot of movement and a nice curve when he can get to it. I would consider Capuano, but I believe he'll be traded before the season starts. I didn't even consider Vargas for the last spot, if you were wondering.
Now it's your turn. What do you think BrewersNation?
We've been hearing the questions for a couple months now, and I think it's time that we look at some projections for Brewers pitching. Using Marcel's system for 2008, here are the projected statistics for each of the candidates for a starting job:
Ben Sheets - 10-7 W-L, 3.93 ERA, 141 IP, 119 K
Yovani Gallardo - 8-5 W-L, 3.76 ERA, 110 IP, 96 K
Jeff Suppan - 11-9 W-L, 4.62 ERA, 206 IP, 107 K
Carlos Villanueva - 6-4 W-L, 3.97 ERA, 93 IP, 76 K
Chris Capuano - 8-10 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 155 IP, 126 K
Carlos Vargas - 10-8 W-L, 4.95 ERA, 154 IP, 106 K
Dave Bush - 10-10 W-L, 4.55 ERA, 172 IP, 126 K
Manny Parra - 2-2 W-L, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 37 K
I know these are very crude projections. They are mostly averages that take into account the league average and age, yet it gives us a nice starting point to make comparisons.
It's time for BrewersNation to make their cases for who should be in the starting rotation. You all have been quiet for a few days now, and its time to start the banter. What do you think?
Here's what I have -- Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, and Bush.
Here's why -- Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan are all locks. Villanueva has garnered high praise from Yost and Melvin, and he seems to have his foot in the door. It seemed like the Brewers were more comfortable with Villy in the starting rotation at the end of the year. Melvin has said that Carlos pitched very well at the beginning of the season in the bullpen and that the Crew may need his presence there again this year. I don't think that's going to happen, however.
Finally, the last spot is a tough choice. I would really like to see Parra in the final spot. It would first give us a lefty at the end of the rotation, so we are not so right-handed in our starting 5. But more importantly, I believe that Parra is the best pitcher out of the remaining candidates. With that said, however, Parra will probably be sent to Nashville to keep his arm out of trouble. He's been very injury prone, and the Brewers want to be careful with Manny while they can afford to do so.
Being reinforced by Melvin's words the other day, Bush is a strong candidate for the fifth spot. He has the most potential out of any other pitcher left, besides Parra. He does have the tendency to pitch brilliantly for 5 innings and blow up in the sixth, I admit it, but Bush has a fastball with a lot of movement and a nice curve when he can get to it. I would consider Capuano, but I believe he'll be traded before the season starts. I didn't even consider Vargas for the last spot, if you were wondering.
Now it's your turn. What do you think BrewersNation?
Gallardo at risk?
UPDATE 02-06-08 11:11am - It turns out that Sports Illustrated's numbers on Yovani Gallardo were a bit off. They had forgotten to include 12 innings that Yovani pitched in the Class-AA playoffs two years ago. Those innings put his total up to 167 innings in 2006, which would mean his workload only increased by 21 innings, not 33. This saves Yovani from the "danger zone" that SI was so worried about in the article.
Haudricourt also notes that Gallardo's innings are not as taxing as innings by someone like Claudio Vargas. Vargas is known to throw about 100 pitches in 5 innings, and Gallardo is much more economical with his pitch count. It seems that this concern over Gallardo is seemingly unfounded. People are just nervous that the Brewers will overwork their young stud. (Note: Yovani can increase his workload to 218 innings and still be in the "safe zone." That means Ned is free to put the kid on the mound without breaking too much of a sweat.)
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Tom Haudricourt checks in for the first time in a few days today. Here's what he has to say:
Haudricourt also notes that Gallardo's innings are not as taxing as innings by someone like Claudio Vargas. Vargas is known to throw about 100 pitches in 5 innings, and Gallardo is much more economical with his pitch count. It seems that this concern over Gallardo is seemingly unfounded. People are just nervous that the Brewers will overwork their young stud. (Note: Yovani can increase his workload to 218 innings and still be in the "safe zone." That means Ned is free to put the kid on the mound without breaking too much of a sweat.)
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Tom Haudricourt checks in for the first time in a few days today. Here's what he has to say:
- There has been some concern about Yovani Gallardo and his increased workload. He notes that young pitchers are only supposed to increase their workload by 30 innings at most a year. Gallardo is drawing some concern because he pitched 33 more innings than he did in 2006 (an increase from 155 to 188).
It seems a little ridiculous to assume that Yovani is now at a higher risk of injury because he eclipsed that number by a mere three innings. It's natural to be at least a bit concerned about a young stud like Gallardo, especially when Ben Sheets has found new and interesting ways to get injured every year, but getting worked up about three innings is a overreacting a little bit. With that said, however, Ned Yost would be wise to watch Gallardo this year. He should not be afraid to spot start for him a few times if Gallardo's arm appears fatigued. - Dayn Perry wrote an article that names the worst MLB player at every position. Catcher Jason Kendall received this unfortunate honor this year.
It is important to note that Perry mostly ranked the players on their offensive output. He also only looked at last year's numbers. He does note that Kendall's arm is worse than awful, but the ever-important intangible factor is not addressed throughout the entire article. Melvin signed Kendall to call a good game and foster a comfortable and workable relationship with the pitchers. If Kendall is sub-par offensively, yet calls a great game and the pitchers improve, I'll consider the signing a win for the Brewers. Our offense has enough firepower anyway.
Bush agrees to one-year, $2.55M deal
Dave Bush and the Milwaukee Brewers have officially avoided an arbitration hearing and agreed to a one-year, $2.55 deal this evening. The midpoint between the Brewers' offer and Bush's request was $2.625, so Melvin seems to have gotten a small victory in this contract.
I find it interesting that Tom Haudricourt printed an article this morning that had Doug Melvin shamelessly praising Bush. "We like David; we think he's a good pitcher," Melvin said.
I find it interesting that Tom Haudricourt printed an article this morning that had Doug Melvin shamelessly praising Bush. "We like David; we think he's a good pitcher," Melvin said.
"If you look at the guy, he has won 12 games each of the last two seasons and pitched around 200 innings. He's got a pretty good chance of being in the rotation."
I cannot help but think that this article was directed towards Bush and his agent. Semi-promising a starting spot to him and then signing him to a deal that is below what an arbitration hearing would have gotten him? Seems like a pretty good strategy from my standpoint.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Gallardo at risk?
Tom Haudricourt checks in for the first time in a few days today. Here's what he has to say:
- There has been some concern about Yovani Gallardo and his increased workload. He notes that young pitchers are only supposed to increase their workload by 30 innings at most a year. Gallardo is drawing some concern because he pitched 33 more innings than he did in 2006 (an increase from 155 to 188).
It seems a little ridiculous to assume that Yovani is now at a higher risk of injury because he eclipsed that number by a mere three innings. It's natural to be at least a bit concerned about a young stud like Gallardo, especially when Ben Sheets has found new and interesting ways to get injured every year, but getting worked up about three innings is a overreacting a little bit. With that said, however, Ned Yost would be wise to watch Gallardo this year. He should not be afraid to spot start for him a few times if Gallardo's arm appears fatigued. - Dayn Perry wrote an article that names the worst MLB player at every position. Catcher Jason Kendall received this unfortunate honor this year.
It is important to note that Perry mostly ranked the players on their offensive output. He also only looked at last year's numbers. He does note that Kendall's arm is worse than awful, but the ever-important intangible factor is not addressed throughout the entire article. Melvin signed Kendall to call a good game and foster a comfortable and workable relationship with the pitchers. If Kendall is sub-par offensively, yet calls a great game and the pitchers improve, I'll consider the signing a win for the Brewers. Our offense has enough firepower anyway.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Minor League Profile: SS Alcides Escobar
After hearing so much about shortstop Alcides Escobar this off-season from Doug Melvin, I thought today would be a good day to go a little more in depth on Alcides.
Escobar's calling card is definitely his defensive abilities. He has terrific range, soft hands, and a plus throwing arm. His talents have been considered a little raw, but he seemed to turn the corner in that aspect after being called up to Double-A Huntsville. Escobar's fielding percentage jumped significantly from .944 to .981, so most scouts believe that he is now major league ready defensively.
Alcides, now 22-years old, has some issues on the offensive end to work out, however. His major criticisms have been his lack of power and lack of plate discipline. Escobar's lack of power can be seen by the fact he only had 21 extra-base hits in 494 at-bats. Couple that with only 18 BBs in the same time frame, and one can see that Alcides' offense needs to improve before he can legitimately be considered a major league ready prospect. He does have plus speed, but his base stealing skills are still extremely raw. This is shown by only having a 63% success rate (22 steals in 35 attempts). These criticisms can be tempered by the fact that he is only 22-years old, so he does have plenty of time to learn some patience and fill out his frame. He has the potential to be a dangerous offensive player through his ability to make contact and his speed.
With that said, however, Alcides does project very well as a leadoff hitter because of his speed and an extremely solid, if not fantastic, fielding shortstop. After all, it is very easy to overlook the fact that he did hit .283 after being sent up to Huntsville. Doug Melvin does not usually praise prospects as highly as he has Alcides, so management must see something special in this kid. He has been invited to Spring Training this year, so he'll have the opportunity to show what he can do on a bigger stage than what he has been used thus far. I expect to hear much more from Alcides in the next couple years, especially when J.J. Hardy is closing in on free agency.
Escobar's calling card is definitely his defensive abilities. He has terrific range, soft hands, and a plus throwing arm. His talents have been considered a little raw, but he seemed to turn the corner in that aspect after being called up to Double-A Huntsville. Escobar's fielding percentage jumped significantly from .944 to .981, so most scouts believe that he is now major league ready defensively.
Alcides, now 22-years old, has some issues on the offensive end to work out, however. His major criticisms have been his lack of power and lack of plate discipline. Escobar's lack of power can be seen by the fact he only had 21 extra-base hits in 494 at-bats. Couple that with only 18 BBs in the same time frame, and one can see that Alcides' offense needs to improve before he can legitimately be considered a major league ready prospect. He does have plus speed, but his base stealing skills are still extremely raw. This is shown by only having a 63% success rate (22 steals in 35 attempts). These criticisms can be tempered by the fact that he is only 22-years old, so he does have plenty of time to learn some patience and fill out his frame. He has the potential to be a dangerous offensive player through his ability to make contact and his speed.
With that said, however, Alcides does project very well as a leadoff hitter because of his speed and an extremely solid, if not fantastic, fielding shortstop. After all, it is very easy to overlook the fact that he did hit .283 after being sent up to Huntsville. Doug Melvin does not usually praise prospects as highly as he has Alcides, so management must see something special in this kid. He has been invited to Spring Training this year, so he'll have the opportunity to show what he can do on a bigger stage than what he has been used thus far. I expect to hear much more from Alcides in the next couple years, especially when J.J. Hardy is closing in on free agency.
Juan Gonzalez a Cardinal
This isn't news about the Milwaukee Brewers, but it is just something fun that you all should know. Juan Gonzalez is set to sign a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.
I know it's just a minor league deal, but I find it a little hard to believe that the Cardinals could not find anyone better than Juan to fill that vacancy. However, with Ankiel, Rasmus, and Duncan patrolling the field for the Red Birds, it is highly unlikely Juan will ever see the field at the new Busch Stadium.
It's amazing that players like Kevin Mench and Kenny Lofton have not signed with a team, yet Juan Gonzalez has signed a contract. Perhaps this is nothing but a publicity move for St. Louis, as they have done absolutely nothing this off-season. That is, except trade Jim Edmonds to San Diego for a Class-A prospect who will never see the field.
I know it's just a minor league deal, but I find it a little hard to believe that the Cardinals could not find anyone better than Juan to fill that vacancy. However, with Ankiel, Rasmus, and Duncan patrolling the field for the Red Birds, it is highly unlikely Juan will ever see the field at the new Busch Stadium.
It's amazing that players like Kevin Mench and Kenny Lofton have not signed with a team, yet Juan Gonzalez has signed a contract. Perhaps this is nothing but a publicity move for St. Louis, as they have done absolutely nothing this off-season. That is, except trade Jim Edmonds to San Diego for a Class-A prospect who will never see the field.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Baseball America's Top 30 Brewers prospects
While everyone is gearing up for the Super Bowl this evening, Baseball America published their Top 30 Brewers prospects for 2008. Here's a rundown for you:
1. OF Matt LaPorta
2. LHP Manny Parra
3. SS Alcides Escobar
4. RHP Jeremy Jeffress
5. 3B Mat Gamel
6. OF Cole Gillespie
7. SS Brent Brewer
8. C Angel Salome
9. OF Lorenzo Cain
10. OF Caleb Gindl
11. RHP Rob Bryson
12. RHP Mark Rogers
13. LHP Zach Braddock
14. RHP Luis Pena
15. RHP R.J. Seidel
16. C Jonathan Lucroy
17. 3B Taylor Green
18. RHP Cody Scarpetta
19. RHP Nick Tyson
20. RHP Alexandre Periard
21. OF Darren Ford
22. OF Lee Haydel
23. 2B Eric Farris
24. OF/1B Michael Brantley
25. OF Stephen Chapman
26. 2B/OF Hernan Iribarren
27. LHP Steve Hammond
28. OF Charlie Fermaint
29. 1B Chris Errecart
30. OF Brendan Katin
I'm still not completely sold that LaPorta is our #1 prospect over Manny Parra, but I can certainly understand why he is ranked there.
A couple notable things:
1. OF Matt LaPorta
2. LHP Manny Parra
3. SS Alcides Escobar
4. RHP Jeremy Jeffress
5. 3B Mat Gamel
6. OF Cole Gillespie
7. SS Brent Brewer
8. C Angel Salome
9. OF Lorenzo Cain
10. OF Caleb Gindl
11. RHP Rob Bryson
12. RHP Mark Rogers
13. LHP Zach Braddock
14. RHP Luis Pena
15. RHP R.J. Seidel
16. C Jonathan Lucroy
17. 3B Taylor Green
18. RHP Cody Scarpetta
19. RHP Nick Tyson
20. RHP Alexandre Periard
21. OF Darren Ford
22. OF Lee Haydel
23. 2B Eric Farris
24. OF/1B Michael Brantley
25. OF Stephen Chapman
26. 2B/OF Hernan Iribarren
27. LHP Steve Hammond
28. OF Charlie Fermaint
29. 1B Chris Errecart
30. OF Brendan Katin
I'm still not completely sold that LaPorta is our #1 prospect over Manny Parra, but I can certainly understand why he is ranked there.
A couple notable things:
- The Brewers' system has 10 pitchers in the top 20 positions. Who says the Brewers need pitching depth down on the farm? Okay...I still think they do. Almost all of those pitchers are still in the Class-A ranks, and they are much too far away to make any sound judgments on. Then again, Jack Z has seven picks coming in the top 100 in the draft next year. Expect some polished arms from that.
- Milwaukee's first three picks from last year made the list. LF LaPorta is #1, C Jonathan Lucroy is #16, and 2B Eric Ferris is #23.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Extensions for young Brewers?
Tom Haudricourt mentions today that Doug Melvin and the rest of the management team are going to seriously be thinking about tying up some of the Brewers' young studs for multiple years. They are specifically going to be looking at Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart. Since they will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season, Melvin will be looking to lock them up at some type of a discount. This is because salaries consistently jump large amounts in the first year of arbitration-eligibility.
While many fans are quick to say that the Brewers should lock up these players for a long time, there are some significant drawbacks. Here are a few:
What are your thoughts?
While many fans are quick to say that the Brewers should lock up these players for a long time, there are some significant drawbacks. Here are a few:
- If Milwaukee sign these players to a large contract extension, they will be committed to these players even if their production drops off. There is a reason why young players normally do not get contract extensions. The players do not have enough time in the majors to prove some type of consistency for the most part. Weeks, Fielder, and Hart all have spent plenty of time in starting roles, but do Melvin and company think this will continue? Weeks certainly went through a prolonged slump last year. Do the Brewers want to be stuck paying him a large amount of money for mediocre play?
- Prince Fielder is a Scott Boras client. Boras clients do not normally sign extensions when they have the opportunity to take a one-year deal and strike it big in free agency. As much as fans love Prince, they will have to realize that Milwaukee cannot afford the paycheck he will be asking for and still craft a quality team around him. Eventually, Prince will be traded for a lot of quality prospects. This is a good thing, however. Don't forget that the Brewers have Matt LaPorta in the system that can switch to 1B very easily. He's got quite the power-stroke too.
- Finally, the Brewers are a small market team. Every time a good player comes through Milwaukee, management will eventually have to let him go to a different team because the Brewers cannot afford it. This is not popular with the fan base, but fans need to realize that trading superstars for stars of the future is a pretty good deal. That's how the Oakland A's and the Florida Marlins field competitive teams too. Heck, the Marlins won a World Series, didn't they? I would gladly take five years of losing to go to the World Series every six years. It's not popular, but fans need to look at the big picture.
What are your thoughts?
Thursday, January 31, 2008
LaPorta and Parra in Law's Top 100
Keith Law posted ESPN's Top 100 MLB prospects on his blog today. The Brewers only had two players make the Top 100, Matt LaPorta and Manny Parra. It was interesting that LaPorta, number #37 on the list, checked in ahead of Parra, who made #41. Everyone is scared about all the injuries Parra has had in the last few years, as he has a long delivery with a lot of effort involved, but I believe working with Mike Maddux will straighten out his delivery a bit.
Law also ranked the Top 5 prospects of every organization:
1) Matt LaPorta
2) Manny Parra
3) Alcides Escobar
4) Angel Salome
5) Jeremy Jeffress
Anyone want to take a guess as to who had the most players in the Top 100? Answer: The Tampa Bay Rays. They are absolutely STACKED in their farm system with Evan Longoria, Wade Davis, and David Price. I suppose your farm system should have loads of talent if you get the first pick every year. With their payroll, they will not be able to keep all those studs for too long. They could have the look of the Brewers in a few years. It's too bad that the Rays are stuck in the AL East, because they are quietly putting together a very solid team that would compete in most other divisions.
Law also ranked the Top 5 prospects of every organization:
1) Matt LaPorta
2) Manny Parra
3) Alcides Escobar
4) Angel Salome
5) Jeremy Jeffress
Anyone want to take a guess as to who had the most players in the Top 100? Answer: The Tampa Bay Rays. They are absolutely STACKED in their farm system with Evan Longoria, Wade Davis, and David Price. I suppose your farm system should have loads of talent if you get the first pick every year. With their payroll, they will not be able to keep all those studs for too long. They could have the look of the Brewers in a few years. It's too bad that the Rays are stuck in the AL East, because they are quietly putting together a very solid team that would compete in most other divisions.
Jack Zduriencik article
This is a great article about the fantastic work our scouting master, Jack Zduriencik, has done with the few draft picks he's had in the last few years. This year, however, the Brewers will have SEVEN picks in the first 100 picks. That is drastically different from last year, when Milwaukee had one pick in the first 100. Zduriencik and company took Matt LaPorta with that pick. I'm not going to pretend that we're going to get 7 LaPorta's with this year's draft, but we will have the much-needed opportunity to restock our farm system. Give the article a look, it's a good read!
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